Floods
Ongoing Research
- Determination of a design discharge on a statistical-deterministic basis
Coupled stochastic-deterministic model systems are used to stochastically generate precipitation fields and describe the interactions of watersheds and flood control systems in large river basins with deterministic approaches. The results of these simulations are analyzed under consideration of various critiria (like flood peak, form of the flood hydrograph as well as flood area, water level and damage) with multivariate statistical methods ("Copulas"). They are also included in planning decisions using fuzzy evaluation approaches.
- New principles for flood dimensioning of water management storage(-systems)
Based on studies of temporal rainfall distribution of heavy rain events, empirically based approaches to design rain (individual events) are obtained. These are used to generate site-specific synthetic flood hydrographs using copulas to characterize the residual risk by hydrological stresses that deviate from the design assumptions.
- Analysis of the stochastic character of floods
In long series of observation time periods can appear, in which either large or small flood events occur more frequently. This might have important effects on the results of the statistical analysis of temporal variability of statistical characteristics. The options to determine and consider these stochastic variability are examined.
- Development and application of flood forecasting systems
The quality of flood forecasting in flood-prone regions depends on the precipitation forecast and the possibility of including actual, measured rainfall values. Meanwhile measured runoff and rainfall data can be used to minimize the differences between simulation and measured data so that a better forecasting is facilitated.
Case studies
- Revaluation of the design criteria for larger parts of Saxony after the flood of 2002
- Analysis of heavy rainfall events for the diversion of design rainfall in North Rhine-Westphalia
- Evaluation of different technical flood protection systems at the River Unstrut under different hydrological stess scenarios
- Development and extrapolation of a flood forecasting system for the River Mulde in Saxony
- Planning of flood control systems under consideration of the expected interactions on behalf of the Free State Saxony